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Category — Black Swan

How the World Works: John Casti at TEDxVienna



Dr. Casti received his Ph.D. in mathematics at the University of Southern California. He worked at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, CA, and served as a profesor in the USA before becoming one of the first members of the research staff at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna, Austria. He has also been on the faculty of the Technical University of Vienna and the Santa Fe Institute in the USA. He has published eight technical monographs in the area of system theory and mathematical modeling, as well as 12 volumes of popular science, including Paradigms Lost, Complexification, Would-Be Worlds, The Cambridge Quintet, and Mood Matters. His 2012 book, XEVENTS addresses the role complexity overload plays in the creation of potentially life-changing events such as the crash of the Internet or the outbreak of a global pandemic. Dr. Casti is currently Director of The X-Center, a prívate research institute in Vienna focusing on development of tools for anticipation of extreme events in human society.

August 20, 2014   No Comments

Nassim Nicholas Taleb – The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable



Nassim Nicholas Taleb, expert on risk and randomness, discusses “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” presented by Harvard Book Store. Nassim Nicholas Taleb defines a “black swan” as a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. How can this phenomenon be better recognized and understood? This lecture contains strong language.

August 15, 2014   No Comments